Investment Survival Letter, April 2009

Investment Survival Letter April, 2009

Hi Everyone,

The only major change in the recent U.S. economic and investment landscape has been the new ‘bear trap’ bull rally in this continuing bear market.
The stock market has rallied 20-25% from the recent lows and the whole investment world would have you believe we have “hit THE bottom”…except for me! And a few others.
Don’t get me wrong! This market rebound could turn out to be substantial, as high as 50%! It could last until late summer! Of course, it may have already ended. But…it’s not the bottom!!!!! Not in the stock market, not in the real estate market and maybe, not even in the chance for systemic risk! The
bottom is yet to come! Recent upturns in some retail and industrial indices have analysts crowing about the new ‘green shoots” sprouting, and “mustard seeds” taking root. HOGWASH!!! The numbers themselves are likely contrived.
This is the kind of economic event that comes along every 60-100 years. It is significant! It will be with us for years and before it’s over, it could well result in a completely new global economic reality, a new international monetary and currency system, the collapse of the U.S. $, as the world’s reserve currency and new business models for every economy in the world! I’m serious!
If this is the end of a Kondratieff (v) cycle, we can look forward to stocks falling to 15-20% of their highs (below 400 on the S&PO500), and real estate prices also falling 80% from their all-time highs, just 2-3 years ago. That would leave us in a Japan-type depression, for the next 10 years.
Kondratieff was a Russian economist who defined the average 60-year cycle in capitalist credit expansions that we may be living through, right now.
If we are, it could mean that all the government air (fiat currency) blown into the collapsing hot air balloon (economy) will not hold it up long enough to fix the tears in it (credit collapse). In other words, it’s coming down!
It doesn’t mean the world will end! It probably won’t! But, it does mean that we are not bouncing back like the ‘69 Mets. It means that many might suffer for years and that many changes and upheavals are possible.
But, even through times like these, people keep striving, working, creating and innovating. Things can bounce from worst to just bad and back again, from time to time. We learn to deal with different things, well, differently.
Take this situation seriously. It could change your life, no matter what your current situation looks like. If you have questions or concerns, you are welcome to call me, anytime. My number is at the end of this letter.


Investment Strategy

Our investment strategy hasn’t changed, yet. If you are a trader, you may want to try speculating on this rally in the bear market, but for most people, I’d recommend maintaining your short holdinsg of SDS, without using margin or leverage, waiting for the reversion of the market to its overall, longer-term downtrend.
My clients will also have the opportunity to court large, but speculative rewards in SRS, the short real estate ETF (exchange-traded funds). This is risky and not for the feint of heart. If you aren’t familiar with shorting markets or ETFs, don’t try these strategies, alone.
I offer anyone free counsel on getting involved with these types of vehicles under the right circumstances. I’ll offer this advice, free. I’ll never charge you a fee. Just call me.
Keep in mind that these investments are only wise in light of your entire situation, including a security cash fund and your personal attitudes toward risk and reward.
We continue to recommend the acquisition of gold and silver coins, especially as prices remain below the recent highs. There could be violent swings in the values of these metals, as in stock market long or short positions. We strive to keep you on ‘the right side of the street’, as reality reveals itself.



All the best,

John Finora



Ps: Always feel free to call me at: 850-457-0459, with any questions or comments. There is NO CHARGE for my services, with NO COMMISSIONS and NO CONFLICTS OF INTEREST!! Clients pay when and what they want. I never touch your money, assets, or accounts. I direct your actions and timing, providing you with the what, when, how and why of every action.



John Finora is a former Financial Consultant with a large CPA firm and worked as an investment advisor, financial planner, in business valuation and consulting, litigation support, forensic accounting and as an expert witness in court. He has worked with the U.S. Treasury Department, Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, examining trust departments in national banks. He has a Bachelor’s Degree in Accounting and specialized in Finance.

Disclaimer: The Investment Survival Letter and Special Alerts are published by John Finora for informational and entertainment purposes only. Investment decisions should be based on an individual's own goals, time horizon, and tolerance for risk.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investments contain risks and could result in losses, including the loss of principal. Before investing, consult an investment advisor.